American Third Party Report

Constitution Party of Idaho: ‘2016 Libertarians Breakout; but the Constitution Party?…Not So Much’

Posted on the Idaho CP’s website on December 8th, 2016

It may be appropriate here to put up comparative data for reflection. After all, this is the eve of the Constitution Party’s so-called National Committee meeting in Huntsville, Alabama (NCM-Huntsville)…erect pinkies and hors d’oeuvres and all that.

No doubt, cream puffery will be the whole of the menu. It is doubtful, given experience, that meaningful introspection and honest substance will get much shrift among the “in camera” executive sanctum and its fawns…for that matter, neither will daylight and fresh air under the circumstances of their routine albeit rather curious anatomical posturing.

Before self-congratulatory xenophobic CP celebrants backslap themselves too vigorously (and risk concussion), we forward the 2016 Libertarian results for comparison…by which we hope to spare NCM-Huntsville from a delusion similar in scope to Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance”. Costly, that.

The following chart (using a reversed X axis for easy comparison to the Y value) shows the trend of Libertarian presidential ballots prior to 2016… In other words, this was our forecast model for the Libertarians.

The “anticipated” 2016 Libertarian vote return ranged from 820,000 to 1,640,000 votes…a wide range. The main reason for the wide 2016 estimate was due to the 2012 results. Johnson’s 2012 campaign vote take was significantly above trend… It “broke through the model” as it were.

By plugging in the 2012 returns (as is necessary because it was not an outlier) “perturbed” the forecast trends for 2016. It certainly pushed the aggressive curvilinear steeply. As it turned out, even that was not steep enough.

In our model’s defense, especially lacking any other basis for an estimate, we readily admit (as the disclaimer goes) that–past results are no guarantee for future returns.

And how true that was with the Libertarians in 2016! Man!

Somewhat dyslexic (using the more normal X-axis data order), here are the results of the Libertarian 2016 ballot, superimposed upon the forecast.

Johnson’s 2012 candidacy looks like it was the pivot point for the Libertarians. And 2016 looks like they confirmed the breakout. Assuming the Libertarians maintain their momentum, 2016 could well be called a paradigm shift. America may finally have an authentic and real third national political party.

For the first time in their party history, in 2016 Libertarians ballot qualified in all 50 states*. Going forward, should the Libertarians consolidate their gains in that national ballot into functional state affiliates, CP-Idaho fully expects to see Libertarians elected to the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms.

Meanwhile, back at the CP NCM hors d’oeuvres table…not so much.

The CP in 2016 lost another two states with printed ballot lines–down from 26 states in 2012 and 37 states in 2008. That is the trend that should be considered.

Our readers should also note: many states with so-called “ballot access” do not in fact have functional state parties. “Access” expired at the close of the November 8th, 2017 general election polls. It will have to be repurchased for 2020…ad infinitum under the current über secret inner circle national management.

That’s the thing about circles at times. They go round and round and round, and don’t have much particular use…unless you jam an axle in the middle of it.

Ah well, at least they have hors d’oeuvres.

*Author’s note: As pointed out by a sharp reader, this “in 2016 Libertarians ballot qualified in all 50 states” should be edited for precision. More correctly, the Libertarian candidate “was on the printed ballot in all 50 states”. We do understand that, in some states, Mr. Johnson was printed on the ballot as an Independent. Hopefully, that clarifies the matter.

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